So, it looks as if Elon Musk has yet another plan to save us, while, of course, enriching himself. He wants to sell us batteries that, coupled with solar panels, will provide round the clock electrical power for our homes. He says that solar panels could provide enough energy, but of course, we would need to store the excess power that's produced during the day, and that's where his batteries come in. Sounds good, right?
Not so fast. First of all, the batteries themselves will cost as much as 3 years of electrical usage, at least for me. Then, there's the cost of the solar panels, which I'm not going to look up. I don't know how long this stuff is supposed to last, and I don't really care. Let's just assume that this system can produce as much electricity as we currently use, and that the cost over time is the same as if we just continued buying from the electric company, making the economics on a personal level equal, even though I'm pretty sure it wouldn't be.
Next, let's forget about what happens to all those old batteries and solar panels when they need to be replaced. We'll just go ahead and assume that they are 100 percent recyclable; again, something I'm pretty sure wouldn't be true.
Now it sounds super-duper good, right? Not really, and here's why.
The chart below shows total electricity usage in the U.S. since 1949. Not surprisingly, it's been a pretty steady upward trend over the years, even during those years when technology was creating more and more efficient electrical devices.
There were a couple of short periods wherein electrical usage actually decreased, but those don't actually represent a solution to the problem of increasing usage; those are most likely due to recessions. Still, recently, it looks as if usage has flattened out some, and this while the number of end-users has increased. The assumption, though, that this is the result of technological advances is, well, a bit of a stretch, and in fact, I think has little at all to do with technology or energy efficiency. Because, what I haven't mentioned yet is the cost to electricity consumers. As it turns out, between 2003 and 2013, the average price of electricity has risen about 35 percent, which I believe has had the greatest impact on constraining electricity consumption over the last few years.
It's not like there aren't other examples of this phenomenon. When gasoline prices plummeted over the last months, there was a lot of speculation about what people would spend their extra cash on. Not terribly surprising is that a fair amount of the savings was spent on, you guessed it, more gasoline. Price does indeed affect consumption, just like they teach in Economics 101. So, yeah, even if this new solar/battery home electrical system were to drop the price of electricity to nothing for your current usage, the likelihood is that you'll just use more electricity, until the cost gets to around about what you're already used to spending.
Of course, this system won't drop the price of electricity to nothing. You'll need to install the solar panels and batteries, a significant up front cost, and then hope that it all lasts long enough to recover the cost before you need to replace the stuff. And, you'll have to keep reminding yourself that you only have so much electricity that you can use, otherwise you'll either have to purchase more electricity from the utility company (which, if everyone were to convert to this new system might not actually exist any more), or you'll have to purchase more panels and batteries. And that cost is "chunky" meaning that you can't just spend a few extra dollars a month to plug in that new big screen television; instead, you'll need to invest a considerable amount up front to cover your future increased need. It makes that new television a significantly larger investment.
Not to fear, though, because I'm sure someone (like possibly our government) will find a way to hide the true cost of converting, likely through tax credits, because people forget that that tax money came from, well, them. And some of those tax credits, you can bet on this, will end up in Elon Musk's pocket, and unless you read the annual reports for his companies, you'll never hear much about it.
And then, perhaps my biggest concern, even though I said "forget about it" earlier is, what happens to all those old batteries? I don't believe that they will be 100 percent recyclable, and even if they are, what happens when some new technology makes those old batteries obsolete? I guess we will find something to use them for, or if not, there's always the bottom of the ocean. That's always a good place to store stuff you don't want anymore.
So, generalizing here, technological "advances" have nearly always, if not always, resulted in increased consumption, not less. And anytime someone makes the claim that THIS technology will really, really, save us, it just isn't true. Anybody out there remember the "paperless office?" And yet, global paper usage has increased by about half over the last 30 or so years.
Now, some of you may be thinking that I'm just jealous, and, I am jealous. I wish I had come up with the idea of scamming the taxpayers in order to enrich myself all the while making it look as if I'm doing them a favor, and having the masses sing my praises while I'm doing it. But, I didn't. Elon Musk did.
Incidentally, the data I used in this article came from the EIA website, which I'm assuming is relatively reliable, although I can't say for sure, being that it is the government.
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